Good morning, and happy Election Day! Today is one of the most consequential days in American politics, and I’ll be sending you frequent updates as results come in. Early turnout numbers suggest Democrats are positioned for major victories across the country, and in today’s update I break down those trends along with Special Counsel Jack Smith’s latest vow to hold Donald Trump accountable in the court of public opinion.
At 2:30 PM ET, I’ll be going live with California Governor Gavin Newsom to discuss Proposition 50 and what he’s seeing on the ground. Later tonight, I’ll share real-time election results from key battlegrounds including Virginia, New Jersey, New York, California, and Pennsylvania. Expect 2 to 3 updates throughout the night as races are called.
This could be a long and historic day. I’ll be working around the clock to bring you the most accurate, up-to-the-minute coverage. If you value this work, please subscribe now to support independent election reporting.
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Let’s make history together. Here’s what you missed:
Early voting turnout favors Democrats across the country considerably. Based on early voting numbers, Democrats are now poised to sweep in races across Virginia, New Jersey, California, and New York City. Here are some top-lines as you start your morning:New York City: Early voting shows a younger electorate compared to past mayoral elections. While older Democrats turned out early, younger voters surged later in the period — a favorable trend for Zohran Mamdani. Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent, saw stronger turnout in precincts that supported him in the primary, but not enough to overtake Mamdani if prior voting patterns hold.Virginia: Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger appears slightly better positioned than Kamala Harris was at the same point last year. Mail ballots — which typically favor Democrats — make up a larger share of early votes, and turnout in heavily Republican counties has lagged behind 2024 levels. The real question in Virginia will be whether Democratic nominee for Attorney General Jay Jones is able to defeat the Republican incumbent despite his recent scandals. New Jersey: Democrats hold a clear pre-election advantage, with turnout exceeding 2024 levels. Mikie Sherrill leads Republicans in both mail and early in-person voting, reversing last year’s in-person deficit and expanding Democrats’ overall early vote margin to 22 points, compared to 16 points at this time last year. Officials reported non-credible bomb threats sent from foreign email accounts to polling sites in seven New Jersey counties, prompting law enforcement sweeps that caused only minor delays for voters.California: Early voting is surging statewide, with ballots mailed to all registered voters and 29 counties opening vote centers for in-person and same-day registration. Both parties are embracing early and mail-in voting this cycle — a major shift from 2020 when Donald Trump discouraged it. The University of Florida’s Election Lab reports a national uptick in early ballots, reflecting strong engagement across party lines ahead of California’s Nov. 5 Election Day.Pennsylvania: Election officials are urging participation in Tuesday’s local elections, where turnout historically drops in non-presidential years. Voters will choose school board members, county commissioners, municipal leaders, and judges whose decisions shape local policy and governance. Officials reminded voters to verify polling places, bring mail ballots if voting in person, and report any issues to the state’s voter hotline, emphasizing that even local races have lasting community impact.
New York City: Early voting shows a younger electorate compared to past mayoral elections. While older Democrats turned out early, younger voters surged later in the period — a favorable trend for Zohran Mamdani. Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent, saw stronger turnout in precincts that supported him in the primary, but not enough to overtake Mamdani if prior voting patterns hold.
Virginia: Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger appears slightly better positioned than Kamala Harris was at the same point last year. Mail ballots — which typically favor Democrats — make up a larger share of early votes, and turnout in heavily Republican counties has lagged behind 2024 levels. The real question in Virginia will be whether Democratic nominee for Attorney General Jay Jones is able to defeat the Republican incumbent despite his recent scandals.
New Jersey: Democrats hold a clear pre-election advantage, with turnout exceeding 2024 levels. Mikie Sherrill leads Republicans in both mail and early in-person voting, reversing last year’s in-person deficit and expanding Democrats’ overall early vote margin to 22 points, compared to 16 points at this time last year. Officials reported non-credible bomb threats sent from foreign email accounts to polling sites in seven New Jersey counties, prompting law enforcement sweeps that caused only minor delays for voters.
California: Early voting is surging statewide, with ballots mailed to all registered voters and 29 counties opening vote centers for in-person and same-day registration. Both parties are embracing early and mail-in voting this cycle — a major shift from 2020 when Donald Trump discouraged it. The University of Florida’s Election Lab reports a national uptick in early ballots, reflecting strong engagement across party lines ahead of California’s Nov. 5 Election Day.
Pennsylvania: Election officials are urging participation in Tuesday’s local elections, where turnout historically drops in non-presidential years. Voters will choose school board members, county commissioners, municipal leaders, and judges whose decisions shape local policy and governance. Officials reminded voters to verify polling places, bring mail ballots if voting in person, and report any issues to the state’s voter hotline, emphasizing that even local races have lasting community impact.
President Donald Trump endorsed former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who is running as an independent in the New York City mayoral race, urging voters to back him over Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa and Democrat Zohran Mamdani. Trump argued that voting for Sliwa would effectively aid Mamdani, who currently leads in polls by 10 points.
Donald Trump held tele-rallies on the eve of Election Day to boost Republican turnout in New Jersey and Virginia, heavily promoting New Jersey GOP gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli but notably omitting Virginia’s nominee Winsome Earle-Sears. Trump called New Jersey “the race to watch,” emphasizing issues like taxes and energy costs while warning of Democratic “catastrophe” if they win. Ciattarelli, now closely aligned with Trump after years of distance, faces Democrat Mikie Sherrill in a tight race, while Virginia’s Abigail Spanberger continues to lead Earle-Sears in polls.
Former special counsel Jack Smith, who twice indicted Donald Trump, is preparing to publicly defend his investigations and challenge Trump’s claims of political persecution. Smith has told associates he wants to present the evidence he gathered on Trump’s handling of classified documents and efforts to overturn the 2020 election, arguing that his work was based on facts, not politics.
Republican lawmakers, encouraged by Trump, are moving to investigate Smith’s conduct but are divided over strategy. Some want closed-door questioning to limit his exposure, while others favor public hearings that could give Trump’s allies a chance to attack him. Smith has requested open testimony, saying he is ready to defend his record and confront misinformation directly.
A Fox News segment about violence in Nigeria prompted President Donald Trump to post on social media accusing the Nigerian government of allowing the “mass slaughter” of Christians and threatening U.S. military intervention, catching his administration off guard. Officials scrambled to assess options, including potential drone strikes, though no plan has been finalized. Experts cautioned that Trump’s framing of the conflict as a “Christian genocide” is misleading.
Former Vice President Dick Cheney, a central architect of the Iraq War and longtime Republican power broker, died at 84 from complications related to pneumonia and cardiac disease. Cheney served as vice president under George W. Bush and defense secretary under George H.W. Bush, shaping U.S. foreign policy through multiple conflicts.
Senate Republicans blocked a Democratic proposal to fully fund the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) during the ongoing government shutdown, leaving millions uncertain about their food benefits. Democrats Jeff Merkley and Chuck Schumer sought unanimous consent to authorize full November funding, but GOP leaders, including John Barrasso, rejected the move, calling it a “political stunt.”
The U.S. government shutdown has reached 35 days, tying the record for the longest in history as negotiations between President Donald Trump and congressional Democrats remain stalled. The impasse has left hundreds of thousands of federal workers unpaid and caused growing disruptions, including flight delays and reduced food benefits.
The family of Randall Alberto Gamboa Esquivel, a 52-year-old Costa Rican man deported from the U.S. in a vegetative state, is accusing U.S. immigration authorities of negligence and inhumane treatment. Gamboa was detained by ICE in Texas in February after re-entering the U.S. to find work and was later hospitalized with severe medical conditions before being flown back to Costa Rica, where he died in October.
Two courts have intervened to stop the deportation of Subramanyam “Subu” Vedam, a 64-year-old legal U.S. resident from Pennsylvania who spent more than 40 years in prison for a murder conviction that was overturned earlier this year. Vedam, who came to the U.S. as an infant, was taken into ICE custody immediately after his release in October and is now held at a Louisiana deportation facility.
Norway’s $1.7 trillion sovereign wealth fund, Tesla’s seventh-largest shareholder, will vote against Elon Musk’s proposed $1 trillion pay package, citing its excessive size and risk, joining other major investors and advisory firms opposing the deal ahead of Thursday’s shareholder vote.
A worker died after being trapped for 11 hours in the partial collapse of Rome’s 13th-century Torre dei Conti during restoration work. Rescuers faced repeated setbacks as the structure continued to crumble. Italian officials expressed condolences and launched an investigation into possible negligence, as the centuries-old tower had been under a multimillion-euro renovation project.
Buckingham Palace announced it will host the largest-ever exhibition of Queen Elizabeth II’s fashion in 2026 to mark what would have been her 100th birthday. The show, Queen Elizabeth II: Her Life in Style, will feature around 200 garments — half never before displayed — including her wedding and coronation dresses, state banquet gowns, and off-duty attire like riding clothes and raincoats.
Good news:
Two farmworkers in Madera County, California — Angel Zarco and Carlos Perea — were hailed as heroes after rescuing more than 20 children from a burning school bus, quickly alerting the driver, helping evacuate all the students to safety before the bus exploded, and being honored by local officials for their bravery and swift action.
Once hunted to extinction in the wild, China’s Père David’s deer has made a stunning comeback after reintroduction efforts began in 1985 with just 39 animals donated from the UK; today, the population has grown to more than 8,200 across multiple protected reserves, marking one of the world’s most successful wildlife recovery stories.
The European Southern Observatory’s new 4-meter Multi-Object Spectroscopic Telescope (4MOST) in Chile has captured its first data, using over 2,400 optical fibers to analyze 2,400 celestial objects every 20 minutes and break their light into 18,000 color components—allowing scientists to determine the composition, temperature, and motion of millions of stars and galaxies across the southern sky.
See you this afternoon.
— Aaron
