Good morning everyone. Major developments this morning. Job numbers came in far worse than expected for the Trump administration’s economy, as employers cut 92,000 jobs, a sharp miss compared with economists’ forecasts and a clear warning sign for the labor market. At the same time, Trump acknowledged that Iran could launch retaliatory attacks on the American homeland and said that some people will die as a result of the war.
The conflict is also widening. U.S. officials say Russia is now providing Iran with intelligence that could help target American forces, raising the risk of a broader confrontation. Trump is also turning his attention to Cuba, predicting the country could “fall pretty soon,” signaling that tensions may expand beyond the current war.
I spent the evening reviewing the Epstein files released by the Justice Department and will have a more detailed update soon if there is new or significant information in those records.
Job Numbers:
- The February jobs report showed that U.S. employers cut 92,000 jobs, which was significantly weaker than economists had expected. This decline pushed the unemployment rate up to 4.4%, suggesting that the labor market may be losing momentum after a period of relatively stable employment. The job losses occurred across many industries, indicating that the slowdown was broad rather than limited to a single sector.
- Several major industries reported job cuts, including manufacturing, construction, and mining, which together lost tens of thousands of jobs. Even health care, a sector that has historically driven job growth due to an aging population, reported a drop of about 19,000 jobs, partly because of a nurses’ strike in California that temporarily sidelined thousands of workers. The widespread nature of these losses raised concerns that the overall labor market may be more fragile than headline employment numbers previously suggested.
- The share of prime-age workers who are either working or actively looking for work slipped slightly to 83.9%, indicating a small decline in labor force participation. At the same time, the number of job openings has fallen to its lowest level since 2020, reflecting a cautious approach by employers who are hesitant to hire amid economic uncertainty. This “low hiring, low firing” environment suggests businesses are holding steady rather than aggressively expanding their workforces.
Iran News:
- Trump acknowledged the risk of possible retaliation against the U.S. during the conflict. When asked whether Americans should be concerned about retaliatory attacks at home, President Trump told Time it was possible and emphasized the inherent risks of war. He stated that casualties are inevitable in wartime, remarking that “some people will die,” underscoring the potential domestic security concerns tied to the escalating conflict.
- According to the Washington Post, Russia is reportedly providing intelligence support to Iran to target U.S. forces in the Middle East. U.S. officials say Russia has been sharing targeting information with Iran, including the locations of American warships and aircraft, marking the first indication that another major U.S. adversary is indirectly assisting Iran in the conflict. The intelligence may be helping Iran conduct more precise attacks on U.S. military assets and infrastructure, including radars and command systems.
- Trump says military action will continue unless Iran agrees to “unconditional surrender.” President Trump stated that the United States will not reach a deal with Iran unless its government fully surrenders, signaling a hardline stance on the conflict. He also suggested the U.S. could influence the selection of Iran’s next leader after the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and said the goal would be to rebuild Iran’s economy afterward.
- U.S. officials have increased domestic security amid fears of Iranian retaliation. According to The Guardian, federal and local authorities have heightened security measures across the United States, including increased patrols and counterterrorism monitoring, due to concerns that Iran or its supporters could attempt retaliatory attacks on U.S. targets following the U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran. Experts warn that potential threats could include cyberattacks, lone-actor violence, or operations carried out by Iranian-linked groups.
- Gas prices are rising sharply due to disruptions from the Middle East conflict. The average U.S. gasoline price increased to $3.32 per gallon, rising 11% in one week as fighting involving the United States, Israel, and Iran disrupted oil shipments through the Persian Gulf. The conflict has pushed crude oil prices up more than 20%, increasing fuel, transportation, and shipping costs and potentially putting economic and political pressure on the U.S. administration.
- Trump dismissed concerns about rising gas prices during an exchange with a reporter. When asked about increasing fuel costs, Trump said the rise would be temporary and predicted prices would fall quickly. He also disputed the premise that gas prices are currently high.
- NBC has confirmed that Trump administration officials told lawmakers that U.S. forces were operating in the area where an Iranian elementary school was hit, killing at least 168 people, many of them children. While officials say the U.S. does not deliberately target civilians and that the strike was not carried out by Israel, an investigation is ongoing to determine what caused the attack.
- Internet monitoring group NetBlocks reported that Iran has been in “digital darkness” for six days, with connectivity at only about 1%, indicating a near-total nationwide internet blackout. The shutdown has effectively cut the country off from global communication, similar to past internet restrictions used by Iranian authorities during major protests.
- NATO has strengthened its ballistic missile defense posture as tensions escalate. The alliance increased its missile defense readiness in response to ongoing Iranian attacks across the region, aiming to better protect member states from potential threats. NATO officials said the adjustment ensures commanders have the resources needed to defend the alliance, as concerns grow that the Middle East conflict could spill over into Europe.
- Israel and the U.S. signaled a major escalation in their campaign against Iran. The Israeli military announced a “new stage” in the conflict, saying it has additional “surprising moves” planned, while U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said American strikes on Iran will increase dramatically. Israel also claimed it destroyed an underground bunker linked to the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei after about 50 fighter jets dropped roughly 100 bombs on the site in Tehran.
- The conflict is causing regional instability and humanitarian concerns. Nearly 100,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon following Israeli evacuation orders and strikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut’s southern suburbs, while tens of thousands of Syrian refugees have fled back to Syria. International concerns are also rising over civilian casualties and legality of evacuations, and several countries—including Azerbaijan—have begun pulling diplomatic staff from Iran as security risks grow.
Non-Iran News:
- The Justice Department released FBI interview summaries containing sexual assault allegations against Donald Trump linked to Jeffrey Epstein. The documents detail a woman’s claim that Trump assaulted her when she was a teenager after being introduced to him by Epstein, though the allegations remain unproven and Trump denies wrongdoing. The release has sparked political controversy and prompted congressional scrutiny over whether related records were previously withheld.
- Trump predicted that Cuba’s government could collapse soon. In a conversation with Dana Bash, Trump shifted the discussion to Cuba and stated that he believes the country is likely to “fall pretty soon,” suggesting potential political instability in the region.
- Texas Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales will not seek re-election after admitting to an affair with a former staffer. Gonzales announced he will finish his current term but drop his re-election bid following revelations that he had a relationship with an aide who later died by suicide. The decision came after pressure from party leadership and an ongoing House ethics investigation into potential misconduct and violations of rules prohibiting relationships with staff under a lawmaker’s supervision.
- A migrant detainee died after falling ill in ICE custody, prompting calls for an investigation. The Guardian has confirmed Alberto Gutiérrez Reyes, a 48-year-old Mexican national, died in a California hospital after reporting chest pain and other symptoms while detained by Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Family members and officials allege he was denied adequate medical care before his death, which is the ninth reported death in ICE custody this year, and Mexico’s government has requested a full investigation into the circumstances.
- A new study finds global warming is accelerating faster than previously recorded. Researchers found the planet is now warming at about 0.35°C per decade, nearly double the rate observed between 1970 and 2015, after accounting for natural climate variations. Scientists warn that if this pace continues, global temperatures could exceed the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C threshold before 2030, increasing the risk of severe climate impacts.
See you soon.
— Aaron
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