Republicans Grow Concerned About Election Prospects Following Trump's Address to Nation
Republicans concerned about election prospects following Trump's address to nation. Mike Johnson sends House home without ACA vote.
By Aaron Parnas•December 18, 2025•11 min read
Elections
Good morning everyone. Get ready for a busy day and a busy end of the week. My main focus is on the Epstein files today and tomorrow and I should have more for you on that soon. Meanwhile, we are getting first reactions from Trump’s address to the nation, and well, Republicans are deeply concerned.
Why? Because the speech did not add value to their election prospects in 2026. At the same time, House Republicans sent members home, which means there will be no vote to extend ACA subsidies between now and the end of the year, when they expire.
To everyone who has already subscribed: thank you. And to those who gifted subscriptions this holiday season, I’m especially grateful. Your support makes it possible for me to do this work full time. I spent the evening reviewing the speech multiple times, and have fact checked it for you below. This is the truth, and it’s important the media reports it.
Hours after Trump’s address to the nation, many conservative lawmakers are privately concerned about the way the speech will impact their races, especially lawmakers in swing districts. The speech, filled with many falsehoods, was a mere recitation of Trump’s campaign-style rallies with little added. I spent the evening rewatching the speech a few times to fact-check parts of it for you:Trump’s claim that wages are rising slightly faster than inflation is not fully accurate; wage growth has slowed to about 3.5% while inflation is around 3.0%.Trump’s claims that 25 million migrants entered the U.S. under Biden are false; data show about 7.4 million unlawful crossings, or roughly 10.2 million including legal-entry overstays.Egg prices are down about 44% since March, not 82%, and while some food prices have eased, overall consumer prices are still increasing.Gas prices have fallen, but not to the levels Trump claimed; the national average is about $2.90 per gallon, nowhere close to $1.99.Trump’s claims of $18 trillion in secured investment are overstated; even White House figures cite about $9.6 trillion, much of it based on vague or unenforceable pledges.Trump’s announced drug-pricing deals have not produced evidence of the massive 400–600% price cuts claimed.
Trump’s claim that wages are rising slightly faster than inflation is not fully accurate; wage growth has slowed to about 3.5% while inflation is around 3.0%.
Trump’s claims that 25 million migrants entered the U.S. under Biden are false; data show about 7.4 million unlawful crossings, or roughly 10.2 million including legal-entry overstays.
Egg prices are down about 44% since March, not 82%, and while some food prices have eased, overall consumer prices are still increasing.
Gas prices have fallen, but not to the levels Trump claimed; the national average is about $2.90 per gallon, nowhere close to $1.99.
Trump’s claims of $18 trillion in secured investment are overstated; even White House figures cite about $9.6 trillion, much of it based on vague or unenforceable pledges.
Trump’s announced drug-pricing deals have not produced evidence of the massive 400–600% price cuts claimed.
This is what one prominent conservative said about the speech:
Online reaction to Trump’s prime-time national address was swift and mocking, with commentators and politicians portraying the speech as angry, rambling and unpresidential—likening it to a campaign rant, questioning his composure, and noting the disconnect between his rosy economic claims and polls showing falling approval—while Trump blamed Joe Biden for current problems and allies like Gavin Newsom used the moment to ridicule him online.
House Republicans narrowly passed a conservative health care bill that excludes extending expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies—ensuring higher premiums for millions, exposing deep GOP divisions, and leaving the measure dead on arrival in the Senate as moderates and Democrats maneuver for a separate extension vote in 2026.
Mike Johnson and House Republicans sent the House of Representatives home for the rest of the year, assuring that there will be no vote on the discharge petition put forth but moderate Republicans and Democrats to extend the subsidies for a period of three years. The earliest there will be a vote on the petition will be early next year, potentially after open enrollment ends for the Affordable Care Act.
The New York Times reports that Donald Trump and Jeffrey Epstein had a far closer, longer, and more intertwined relationship from the late 1980s through the early 2000s than Trump has publicly acknowledged, bonded by socializing, frequent contact, shared party circuits in New York and Florida, and a competitive pursuit of young women, with Epstein often acting as Trump’s wingman.Dozens of interviews, documents, photos, calendars, and emails show Epstein and Trump spent significant time together at Mar-a-Lago, Trump Tower, Epstein’s Manhattan mansion, and social events, with regular phone calls and meetings; multiple witnesses recalled Trump being a routine presence in Epstein’s life, despite later denials.At least six women who later accused Epstein or Ghislaine Maxwell of grooming or abuse were introduced to Trump through Epstein or encountered him at Epstein-hosted parties; none accuse Trump of abusing minors, but several describe Trump attending gatherings where Epstein directed women to have sex with other men.Numerous women and former employees describe Trump participating in a broader culture of sexualized behavior around Epstein, including alleged groping, leering, and explicit conversations; Trump has denied these accounts, though nearly 20 women have publicly accused him of sexual misconduct over the years, including in the E. Jean Carroll case.
Dozens of interviews, documents, photos, calendars, and emails show Epstein and Trump spent significant time together at Mar-a-Lago, Trump Tower, Epstein’s Manhattan mansion, and social events, with regular phone calls and meetings; multiple witnesses recalled Trump being a routine presence in Epstein’s life, despite later denials.
At least six women who later accused Epstein or Ghislaine Maxwell of grooming or abuse were introduced to Trump through Epstein or encountered him at Epstein-hosted parties; none accuse Trump of abusing minors, but several describe Trump attending gatherings where Epstein directed women to have sex with other men.
Numerous women and former employees describe Trump participating in a broader culture of sexualized behavior around Epstein, including alleged groping, leering, and explicit conversations; Trump has denied these accounts, though nearly 20 women have publicly accused him of sexual misconduct over the years, including in the E. Jean Carroll case.
Ghislaine Maxwell filed a habeas petition seeking to overturn her 2021 sex-trafficking conviction and 20-year sentence, arguing new evidence shows constitutional violations and false testimony.
Politico has confirmed that the Trump administration has quietly sounded out U.S. oil companies about returning to Venezuela after Nicolás Maduro, but low oil prices, political risk, and unresolved asset seizures mean firms like Exxon and ConocoPhillips have shown little to no interest despite government pressure and talks framed around a post-Maduro future.
Investigators say there are no obvious suspects or working theories in the fatal shooting of MIT professor Nuno F.G. Loureiro, who was found with gunshot wounds at his Brookline, Massachusetts home, with authorities confirming no apparent link to the recent Brown University shooting and increasing police presence to reassure the shaken community.
According to Josh Gerstein, federal prosecutors failed to secure a new indictment against Letitia James after an Alexandria grand jury rejected all proposed charges—including an added false-statement felony—and a judge refused to keep the failed indictment sealed, exposing another setback to the U.S. Department of Justice’s case that James’ lawyers say reflects a politically motivated effort tied to Donald Trump.
U.S. inflation unexpectedly cooled in November, with the Consumer Price Index rising 2.7% year over year and core inflation slowing to 2.6%, both below expectations, signaling easing price pressures after months of stubbornly high living costs, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Trump Media & Technology Group, the parent of Truth Social, announced a surprise all-stock merger with nuclear fusion firm TAE Technologies valued at over $6 billion, boosting Trump Media shares sharply and aiming to create one of the first publicly traded fusion companies despite Truth Social’s struggles and fusion power still not being commercially proven.
A new Gallup poll shows Americans’ self-rated mental health has fallen to a record low, with fewer than 30% describing it as “excellent” and only 72% saying it is “good” or better, a decline experts attribute to pandemic fallout, political and economic uncertainty, and social disconnection—though increased openness about mental health struggles may also reflect reduced stigma.
CDC officials are urgently urging Americans to get flu shots and antivirals after last season became the deadliest pediatric flu year on record with 288 child deaths, as flu activity rises again and a concerning H3N2 mutation circulates—while declining vaccination rates, policy changes, and vaccine misinformation raise fears of preventable severe illness and deaths this season.
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According to The Guardian, the Trump administration announced a proposed $11bn arms package for Taiwan—the largest ever if approved by Congress—including HIMARS, long-range missiles, howitzers, drones and military software, prompting strong condemnation from China, which warned the move heightens the risk of military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait even as Taiwan and US officials framed the sale as bolstering deterrence and regional security.
Reuters has confirmed that Brazil’s congress approved a bill to sharply reduce the more than 27-year prison sentence of former president Jair Bolsonaro for plotting a 2022 coup, likely cutting his closed-regime time to just over two years; although President Lula is expected to veto the measure, conservative lawmakers are poised to override him, prompting fears the move revives Brazil’s long history of political impunity.
The Los Angeles County Medical Examiner ruled that filmmaker Rob Reiner and his wife, photographer Michele Singer Reiner, died from multiple sharp force injuries in a homicide on Dec. 14 at their Brentwood home, after which their son Nick Reiner was arrested and charged with two counts of first-degree murder and a weapons enhancement, appearing in court without entering a plea.
Good news:
In the Sundarbans mangrove forests of India and Bangladesh, widows whose husbands were killed by tigers are partnering with conservation groups to replant hundreds of acres of mangroves—restoring coastal protection, fish stocks and tiger habitat while reducing human–tiger conflict and helping rebuild dignity and livelihoods in communities devastated by climate change and deforestation.
Volunteer “Grandma Stands,” inspired by a journalist’s bond with his grandmother, are popping up in US cities like McKinney, Texas, where rotating teams of grandmothers sit at sidewalk stands to offer free listening, empathy, and life advice—addressing loneliness and disconnection by providing simple, face-to-face human connection.
A viral photo of a Virginia raccoon dubbed the “trashed panda,” found passed out in a liquor store bathroom, sparked a merch fundraiser that raised more than $180,000 for Hanover County Animal Protection and Shelter after fans bought shirts and mugs via Bonfire, turning a comic wildlife mishap into a major windfall for animal care and officer training.
Taronga Conservation Society is launching a major rewilding effort in New South Wales by restoring more than 3,000 acres of former farmland with around one million native trees to reconnect habitats and eventually reintroduce koalas, platypuses, spotted quolls and endangered birds, aiming to create a self-sustaining ecosystem beyond the traditional role of a zoo.
