Good evening. There is a significant amount of news to cover. Republicans are now openly acknowledging that the ongoing government shutdown—impacting agencies like TSA—persists because Donald Trump has instructed them not to negotiate with Democrats, placing responsibility squarely on him.
At the same time, serious concerns about potential market manipulation are emerging after traders placed massive oil bets shortly before Trump’s announcement regarding Iran. Meanwhile, ICE has detained a woman at San Francisco International Airport, and Markwayne Mullin is facing renewed scrutiny over a newly surfaced video.
I spent today reading through more than a thousand of your responses to my letter last night. I appreciate everyone who took the time to share how they are processing this moment. To those who offered support or subscribed, thank you. If you are able, consider subscribing to help sustain this work. Independent reporting is essential right now, and I remain committed to holding those in power accountable without compromise.
Here’s the news:
- According to the Financial Times, traders placed about $580 million in oil futures bets roughly 15 minutes before a social media post by Donald Trump about Iran talks, which later caused oil prices to drop sharply. The unusual timing of the trades, along with a spike in trading volume, raised questions about whether some investors anticipated the announcement. After the post suggested progress in U.S.–Iran discussions, crude prices fell while stock markets, including the S&P 500, rose. However, Iran’s parliament speaker later denied that any negotiations had taken place.
- GOP senator John Kennedy says Republicans rejected a Democratic deal to fund DHS (including TSA) because Trump opposed any agreement, stating: “The Democrats offered to open up everything but ICE. Ted and I said okay, let’s accept their offer... That way DHS is back open. Senator Thune submitted that to Trump, he said, ‘No. No deals with the Democrats.’ So, we’re back to square one”
- Republicans have rejected a Democratic bill to fund TSA for the eighth time today:
- The White House is delaying DHS funding negotiations until Senator Markwayne Mullin is confirmed as Homeland Security Secretary, believing he should participate in talks. Meanwhile, negotiations to end the DHS shutdown remain stalled, with Trump opposing a deal unless Republicans’ elections bill is passed. Some GOP senators are attempting to meet with Trump to discuss funding options, including partial funding plans. The ongoing standoff risks prolonging the shutdown to a record length.
- ICE officers arrested two members of a family at San Francisco International Airport due to a longstanding deportation order, with officials saying one person resisted during the detention. Authorities described the incident as isolated and not part of broader immigration enforcement at the airport. The arrests were also unrelated to plans to deploy ICE agents at airports to assist TSA staffing shortages. Local officials emphasized that airport operations were unaffected and that local law enforcement was not involved in the immigration action.
- Donald Trump claimed the U.S. had “productive” talks with Iran and suggested a potential deal to end the conflict, even extending a military deadline. However, Iran denied any direct or indirect negotiations, contradicting Trump’s statements. The situation remains volatile, with ongoing military strikes and rising tensions across the region. Diplomatic efforts may be happening indirectly through third-party countries, but no confirmed talks have taken place.
- According to Politico, the Trump administration is exploring Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, as a potential negotiating partner or future leader as it seeks a diplomatic path to end the conflict. Officials say they are still “testing” multiple candidates and have not committed to any one figure. The effort reflects a shift toward negotiations amid ongoing war and economic concerns, including oil markets. However, skepticism remains about whether Iran would cooperate or accept U.S. influence over its leadership.
- Trump appeared to shift blame for the war onto Pete Hegseth, saying: “Pete, I think you were the first one to speak up. You said, ‘Let’s do it.’”
- According to CBS, U.S. intelligence indicates Iran has placed at least a dozen naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about global oil shipping. The development comes amid heightened tensions and ongoing conflict, with the U.S. targeting Iranian mine-laying capabilities. Trump has paused military escalation while claiming potential diplomatic progress, though Iran denies direct talks. The situation is impacting global markets and fueling concern over energy supply disruptions.
- U.S. intelligence officials reportedly believe it is unlikely the war will achieve key goals like overthrowing Iran’s regime or permanently eliminating its nuclear threat, according to a Washington Post report.
- The USS Tripoli, USS New Orleans, and about 2,200 Marines from the 31st MEU are set to arrive in the Middle East on Friday—timed with the end of Trump’s 5-day delay and market close, per the Wall Street Journaltw.
- Trump dismissed criticism by reframing the conflict, saying Democrats call it a “war” while he describes it as a “military operation”
- Trump suggested a vague and controversial plan for controlling the Strait of Hormuz, saying it could be “jointly controlled” by himself and a future Iranian leader, adding: “Maybe me. Maybe me. Me and the next ayatollah, whoever that is… There will also be a serious form of regime change. Look at Venezuela.”
- Past remarks by Senator Markwayne Mullin describing physically disciplining his children and threatening his daughter’s boyfriend have resurfaced amid scrutiny over his fitness to lead DHS. He openly endorsed spanking and recounted detailed stories of punishing his children, drawing criticism about his temperament. The controversy adds to prior incidents, including a near physical altercation during a Senate hearing and comments appearing to justify violence. Lawmakers are now debating whether his behavior is appropriate for overseeing federal law enforcement agencies.
- A woman who accused Bill Cosby of sexual abuse in 1972 was awarded $19.2 million by a California civil jury, with additional punitive damages still pending. Cosby, now 88, denied the allegations and criticized the verdict as unfair to decades-old claims. He was previously convicted in a separate 2018 assault case, though that conviction was overturned in 2021. The lawsuit stems from a 2023 filing related to alleged abuse of a restaurant server in Northern California.
- An Air Canada regional jet collided with a fire truck on a runway at LaGuardia Airport, killing both pilots and injuring dozens of passengers and crew. The crash appears to have involved a possible air traffic control error, with recordings suggesting the truck was cleared to cross before being told to stop. Passengers described a chaotic, terrifying scene but credited the pilots with slowing the plane and saving lives. Investigators are now examining the incident, including potential communication failures and human error.
- Early reports suggest a lone air traffic controller, managing both air and ground traffic, may have been overwhelmed before the deadly LaGuardia crash involving a plane and fire truck. The situation was complicated by a separate emergency involving another aircraft, creating a cascade of coordination challenges. Audio recordings captured the controller admitting “I messed up” after the collision. The incident highlights concerns about system strain and staffing pressures in air traffic control.
- A fire at a historic courthouse in Rome, Georgia led to a partial collapse of its clock tower:
- A bright meteor was seen streaking across the skies over California, Nevada, and Arizona, with more than 200 eyewitness reports. It was the third such sighting in the U.S. within a week, following similar events in Texas and near Pittsburgh. The meteor traveled at high speed before breaking apart in the atmosphere. Officials say the events are not connected and are typical space debris entering Earth’s atmosphere.
- Trump joked about fighting Elvis, asking if he could win, and was told the singer “would’ve been respectful enough to let you win”
- Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni suffered a major political setback after voters rejected her judicial reform referendum, weakening her standing and momentum. The defeat has energized opposition parties, who now believe she can be beaten in the next election. The vote is widely seen as a broader referendum on her leadership rather than just the policy itself. It marks her first major loss in office and raises uncertainty about her political future.
- A Colombian military transport plane crashed shortly after takeoff in Putumayo, killing at least eight people and injuring 83. The aircraft, a C-130 Hercules carrying over 120 personnel, went down near the airport, with the cause still under investigation. Officials said there is no indication of an attack, and the crew and plane were considered qualified and airworthy. Survivors were rescued and taken to hospitals, while authorities expressed concern over the military’s aging equipment.
See you in the morning.
— Aaron
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