Good afternoon everyone. There are major developments out of Iran as officials warn the war could last weeks, not days, according to a senior Republican senator. A senior Democratic senator says President Trump misrepresented intelligence ahead of the strikes, and lawmakers are preparing to force a war powers vote. The conflict has now spread across much of the Middle East with additional strikes reported, while here at home counterterrorism teams are on high alert.
Here’s the news:
- According to reports from Axios, Reuters, and elsewhere, Iran’s Supreme Leader has been killed:
- Democrats, joined by a small number of Republicans including Reps. Thomas Massie and Warren Davidson and Sen. Rand Paul, said they will force a vote on a war powers resolution to limit President Trump’s military actions in Iran, arguing the strikes were conducted without required congressional authorization, while most Republican leaders such as Speaker Mike Johnson and Sen. John Thune defended the operation as a justified response to Iran’s nuclear ambitions and regional threats.
- President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke following their joint strikes on Iran, with the White House saying Trump monitored the operation overnight from Mar-a-Lago alongside his national security team, will continue tracking developments, and is being continually briefed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
- Close allies within Trump’s MAGA base expressed immediate unease over his push for regime change in Iran, warning the strikes risk dragging the U.S. into another prolonged Middle East war, saying the administration failed to adequately explain the move to supporters who backed Trump’s “no new wars” pledge, and voicing concern that a drawn-out conflict could divide the base, dampen midterm enthusiasm, and shift focus away from domestic priorities — even as many said they are willing, for now, to trust that Trump has a plan.
- Sen. Mark Warner, the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, accused the Trump administration of misrepresenting intelligence to justify attacking Iran.
- According to a Reuters report , prior to the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the CIA assessed that even if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were killed, he would likely be replaced by hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) figures rather than triggering regime change; the intelligence, shared with senior U.S. officials and congressional leaders, reflected uncertainty about outcomes even as President Trump signaled support for regime change and moved forward with the attack after failed nuclear negotiations.
- Rep. Jason Crow criticized President Trump’s warning that American lives could be lost in the Iran conflict, accusing him of being willing to accept that cost while it would not be his own family or wealthy donors who would bear the burden of fighting.
- Former U.S. Ambassador John Bolton said Trump supporters who voted for “no new wars” were mistaken to believe the president had a consistent national security philosophy, adding that he regrets not being persuasive enough during Trump’s first term to bring about the current outcome.
- The FBI has placed its counterterrorism and counterintelligence teams on elevated alert nationwide following the US strikes in Iran, mirroring heightened security measures by local police departments such as in New York City amid concerns about potential violence on US soil.
- The U.N. Security Council has scheduled an emergency meeting for 4 p.m. ET following the joint U.S.-Israel attack on Iran, as Russia condemned the strikes as a “preplanned and unprovoked” act of aggression against a sovereign U.N. member state and China expressed deep concern while urging an end to military action.
- Reuters has confirmed that oil and gas tankers are avoiding or turning back from the Strait of Hormuz after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, following reported Iranian naval radio warnings that transit was banned and U.S. advisories for ships to keep distance from military assets, heightening risks to global energy shipments.
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, in a joint statement with Foreign Minister Anita Anand, voiced support for U.S. strikes aimed at preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, called Iran a key source of regional instability and human rights abuses, and urged civilian protection while pledging to safeguard Canadian nationals and diplomatic missions.
- Following the strikes in Iran, the American President posted an article suggesting unverified claims that Iran meddled in the American election in 2020 to stop him.
- An Iranian ballistic missile appears to have struck the headquarters of the US Navy's 5th Fleet in Bahrain.
- Bahrain’s Interior Ministry said three residential buildings in Manama and Muharraq were targeted and damaged by drone attacks and debris from an intercepted missile; one building was evacuated and a fire contained with one person treated for minor smoke inhalation, while emergency and damage assessments continue at the other sites.
- A fire broke out at Dubai’s Fairmont The Palm hotel after debris—possibly from intercepted Iranian missiles—fell during an Iranian missile attack, injuring four people as witnesses reported explosions, smoke, and panic on Palm Jumeirah amid broader regional strikes targeting U.S. bases.
- According to Reuters, Iranian IRGC chief Gen. Mohammad Pakpour and Defense Minister Amir Nasirzadeh were killed in the opening Israeli strikes on Iran, with additional senior regime and military figures reportedly targeted, though the full results of the attacks remain unclear.
- U.S. Central Command told CBS it is investigating reports of possible civilian casualties in Iran during the ongoing military operation, emphasizing that protecting civilians is a top priority and denying that U.S. forces target civilians, after Iran’s foreign minister claimed a girls’ school in southern Iran was struck in the U.S.-Israel attack.
- Israel’s military said it deployed around 200 fighter jets to drop hundreds of munitions on roughly 500 targets across central and western Iran, including air defense systems and ballistic missile launchers, calling it the largest flyover in its history and saying the strikes expanded Israeli air superiority and weakened Iran’s missile launch capabilities.
- A classified internal watchdog report reviewed by The Wall Street Journal found that Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem created “significant” airport security vulnerabilities by allowing all travelers—not just TSA PreCheck members—to keep their shoes on at screening checkpoints, and that she failed for months to appropriately respond to the inspector general’s warnings, despite the politically popular July policy change.
- A New York Times investigation reports that F.B.I. Director Kash Patel has assigned rotating F.B.I. SWAT teams to provide full-time protection for his girlfriend, country singer Alexis Wilkins, escorting her to performances, personal errands and overseas trips, an unprecedented arrangement that former officials say diverts tactical resources and raises concerns about potential abuse of government security assets, though the bureau says she faces numerous active death threats tied to her relationship with Patel.
See you soon.
— Aaron
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