Good morning everyone. An important update to start the day. The Administration’s narrative justifying the strikes in Iran has been undercut after Pentagon officials acknowledged that Iran was not planning to strike the United States. At the same time, Iran’s political future remains unclear, as President Trump conceded that individuals he had considered as potential new leaders were killed in the initial attacks, while concerns grow inside the Pentagon about depleting U.S. military stockpiles. American jets were also shot down in Kuwait, and the death toll continues to rise.
It is the beginning of what will be a very busy week as members of Congress return to Washington to debate a War Powers resolution aimed at limiting the Administration’s authority to conduct military action. I will be speaking with members of Congress throughout the week to bring you the latest developments.
To everyone who has subscribed, shared this reporting, or sent supportive messages over the past 48 hours, thank you. Our work is reaching a wide audience, and I am deeply proud of what we are building. If you are able, please consider subscribing and helping us continue to grow this together.
Here’s the news:
Iran update:
- The war between the United States, Israel, and Iran has escalated dramatically following the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with U.S. and Israeli forces striking thousands of targets across Iran and causing over 550 reported deaths. Iran retaliated with attacks across the Middle East, killing four U.S. service members and civilians in Israel and Gulf countries, while Hezbollah joined the conflict from Lebanon. Iran’s leadership has refused negotiations with the U.S., oil prices have surged, global evacuations are underway, and Iran’s interim leadership council is working to appoint a successor amid growing regional instability.
- Trump told the New York Times that Pentagon projections suggest U.S. casualties in the war with Iran could rise significantly beyond the three service members confirmed killed so far, describing even that number as “three too many.” He emphasized that military forecasts indicate losses “could be quite a bit higher,” preparing the public for the possibility of mounting fatalities as the conflict continues.
- Trump told ABC News that the U.S. had identified possible candidates to lead Iran after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death, but he said the initial strikes were so effective they “knocked out most of the candidates” and left no clear replacement, noting even the second- and third-place options were dead.
- Trump further compared the situation in Iran to the earlier U.S.-backed removal of Venezuela’s leader, calling it a “perfect scenario” for leadership change, while acknowledging that dozens of Iranian leaders have been killed in current strikes. He said he has “three very good choices” in mind for Iran’s leadership but declined to name them, and also suggested that ultimately it may be up to the Iranian people to decide their government’s future, highlighting uncertainty about the administration’s endgame.
- Meanwhile, Pentagon officials told congressional staff that Iran was not planning to strike U.S. forces unless Israel attacked first, contradicting the administration’s public claim that Tehran posed an imminent, preemptive threat. While briefers cited Iran’s longstanding ballistic missile program and proxy forces as ongoing risks, attendees said this did not substantiate the urgency used to justify U.S. strikes.
- Trump told ABC News that after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.–Israeli strikes, he boasted, “I got him before he got me,” referring to what U.S. intelligence believes were two previous plots by Iranian-linked actors to assassinate him in 2024 — and framed the strike as preempting those attempts.
- The Washington Post reports that the mood inside the Pentagon is described as intense and paranoid, with leaders concerned that the United States could deplete its air defense stockpiles and that the conflict may spiral out of control. Those fears echo warnings from Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Dan Caine last week about the risks of escalation and mounting strain on military resources.
- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the U.S. strikes on Iran are not officially intended as a “regime change” operation, though he acknowledged that Iran’s leadership has in fact changed and argued that the outcome benefits the world. His remarks contrast with President Donald Trump’s more explicit encouragement of regime change, as Trump directly urged the Iranian people to “seize control” of their future with American backing.
- General Dan Caine warned Americans to expect additional U.S. casualties, emphasizing that Operation Epic Fury will be prolonged and difficult rather than a short campaign. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth framed the war as the culmination of decades of Iranian hostility toward the United States, asserting that while the U.S. did not start the conflict, it intends to “finish it.” Although he denied that the campaign is officially about regime change, his remarks suggested a transformative objective in Iran’s leadership structure.
- A fourth U.S. service member has died from injuries sustained during the operation, adding to earlier fatalities among troops stationed in Kuwait. In a major complication, three U.S. F-15 fighter jets were mistakenly shot down by Kuwaiti air defenses during active combat operations, though all aircrew survived. These incidents underscore the chaos and risks of multi-front warfare in densely militarized airspace.
- Oil prices surged between 8% and 9% as the conflict disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and triggered fears over Middle Eastern supply routes. Natural gas prices also spiked after Qatar halted LNG production following attacks on its facilities, while Saudi Arabia partially shut down its Ras Tanura refinery after drone interceptions. Global stock markets fell sharply, gold prices rose as investors sought safe-haven assets, and analysts warned of inflationary pressures and higher gasoline prices.
- An oil tanker was attacked in the Gulf of Oman, killing one crew member and raising alarms about commercial shipping security near the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian strikes targeted civilian infrastructure in Qatar, including near its international airport, and smoke was reported near the U.S. Embassy in Kuwait. Drone and missile strikes have hit Jerusalem and other populated areas, widening fears of a prolonged regional war.
- Iran’s Red Crescent reports at least 555 deaths from U.S.-Israeli strikes across more than 130 cities, while missile and drone attacks continue against Israel and U.S. regional bases. A former Revolutionary Guard commander indicated some IRGC units may be operating autonomously after losing contact with leadership, increasing fears of uncontrolled escalation. Meanwhile, Iran’s top national security official declared that negotiations with the United States are off the table.
- Hezbollah launched missile attacks on Israel in retaliation for Khamenei’s killing, prompting Israel to begin offensive operations in Lebanon and target senior Hezbollah leadership. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam banned Hezbollah’s military activities and demanded that it surrender weapons to the state, signaling internal political strain. Civilians in southern Lebanon fled en masse toward Beirut as Israeli strikes intensified.
- Massive flight cancellations and airport closures in Dubai and Doha have stranded thousands of travelers as airspace across the Gulf becomes increasingly unsafe. Reports indicate tens of thousands of foreign nationals, including German tourists, are unable to leave the region. Civilians across Lebanon and Gulf states are evacuating conflict zones, while humanitarian organizations, including the WHO, are urging protection of civilians and healthcare facilities.
Non-Iran update:
- The Supreme Court is considering whether a federal law that bars frequent illegal drug users from owning firearms violates the Second Amendment, in a case involving a Texas man whose indictment was dismissed after an appeals court ruled the government failed to prove he was under the influence at the time he possessed a gun. The outcome could clarify whether habitual drug users can be temporarily disarmed as “dangerous persons” under the Constitution.
- As South Carolina faces a measles outbreak infecting nearly 1,000 people, anti-vaccine groups tied to Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are pushing to eliminate school immunization mandates in more than 20 states, including several with active outbreaks, arguing such laws violate personal freedom. Public health experts warn that weakening mandates would lower vaccination rates, increase outbreaks, and lead to more hospitalizations, long-term complications and deaths, with federal data showing measles cases at their highest levels in decades.
- According to Reuters, Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado said she plans to return to Venezuela in the coming weeks to prepare for what she called a new and decisive electoral victory, though she did not provide a specific date. Her announcement comes after the U.S. military operation that removed Nicolás Maduro from power, with Venezuela’s acting president warning Machado would have to “answer” upon her return, underscoring continued political uncertainty as questions remain about when or how elections might take place.
- NBC News has confirmed that India and Canada agreed to strengthen their economic partnership and aim to finalize a comprehensive trade deal expected to boost bilateral trade to $50 billion by 2030, signaling a reset after two years of strained relations. Ties had deteriorated following Canadian allegations that India was involved in the 2023 killing of a Sikh activist near Vancouver, which India denied, but the two countries are now expanding cooperation in areas including nuclear energy, defense, critical minerals and cultural exchange as Canada seeks to diversify trade beyond the United States.
- According to The Guardian, a Florida man who had been missing since Valentine’s Day was found more than a week later trapped shoulder-deep in mud near a sand plant in Putnam County, where he had survived freezing temperatures without food or water for days . Rescue crews carried out a three-hour operation to free Andrew Giddens, 36, who was airlifted to a hospital in critical condition and is expected to recover physically, with authorities declining to pursue trespassing charges due to his mental health situation.
See you soon.
— Aaron
Loading comments...