We have breaking news this afternoon. A potential breakthrough emerged in the Senate as negotiators signaled progress toward reopening the federal government, now in the longest shutdown in U.S. history. Several Senate Democrats are showing new openness to supporting a funding deal.
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The developing agreement centers on a short-term continuing resolution that would extend government funding through January 30. That stopgap bill would eventually be paired with a three-bill “minibus” funding package, the combined product serving as the final vehicle to reopen shuttered agencies.
However, the path forward is procedurally slow. The Senate is expected to vote as soon as tonight on a motion to reconsider the House-passed continuing resolution, which is merely the shell for the eventual bipartisan package. That initial vote requires 60 senators. Without a time agreement, the full process could take several days.
One new and significant component of the emerging deal is an agreement to reverse the mass layoffs, or reductions in force (RIFs), of federal workers that have occurred since October 1. That reversal is expected to be included as part of the final package to reopen the government.
But the battle over future RIFs remains unresolved. Sen. Susan Collins told Republicans during a closed-door lunch that the question of preventing additional RIFs is still under negotiation. Sen. Tim Kaine is pressing aggressively for stronger protections, while the White House remains opposed to further limits.
Beyond that dispute, Democrats continue to push for guarantees related to the Affordable Care Act. The deal does not include an extension of enhanced ACA subsidies, a key Democratic priority. Instead, it promises a future Senate vote on the issue, though there is no assurance such an extension would become law. Several Democrats are now privately acknowleding that President Donald Trump’s hardened stance on ACA subsidies leaves little room for a bipartisan agreement, and some are willing to settle for the vote in order to end the shutdown.
Despite the progress, Democratic unity is fraying. Several Senate Democrats are expected to oppose the emerging deal. That leaves the caucus with a strategic dilemma: whether to allow the process to move swiftly toward a resolution, or to drag out the timeline even though the final outcome appears all but inevitable. Any individual senator can slow the process substantially.
Eight Democratic votes will be needed to take up the initial House-passed bill. Once that threshold is crossed, Senate leaders plan to amend it with the newly negotiated stopgap extension and funding package.
If the Senate passes the final version, it will return to the House for approval before heading to President Trump’s desk.
The White House, which has resisted several Democratic demands, nevertheless signaled support for the Senate framework. A senior administration official told Punchbowl News: “The President has wanted the government open since day one. This appears to be a good way to accomplish that goal.”
Even with increasing cooperation, negotiators caution that the remaining sticking points must be resolved before the government can reopen. And with procedural hurdles ahead, the shutdown is likely to continue for several more days.